Category: Analysis

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2015/06/28/Is-the-Muslim-Coptic-honeymoon-in-Egypt-over-.html

Copts breathed a sigh of relief following the ouster of Islamist President Mohammad Morsi, and the visit of his successor Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to the Coptic Orthodox Church on the eve of Coptic Christmas on Jan. 6, 2014 seemed to usher in a whole new era. Yet concerns about latent hostilities that threaten to boil over were revived with the forced evacuation of five Christian families, a total of 18 people, from their hometown.

It began when 28-year-old Copt Ayman Morcos, who lives and works in Jordan, was said to have posted on Facebook cartoons that were considered derogatory to Islam and the Prophet Mohamed by residents of his village Kafr Darwish in the Upper Egyptian governorate of Beni Sweif. As news of the Facebook posts spread in the village, angry Muslims attacked Morcos’s house and the houses of several Coptic families with rocks and Molotov cocktails.

The clashes, which reportedly lasted for days, were followed by customary reconciliation meetings attended by village elders and religious leaders from both parties. The decision was made to evacuate Morcos’s extended family.

The outcry that followed the evacuation, and reports of the family moving from one village to another looking for a place to live, drove the governor of Beni Sweif, Mohamed Selim, to revoke the decision and oversee the return of the family, while promising an investigation into the incident and compensation for the damages.

“This is not a happy ending,” said Youssef Sidhom, editor-in-chief of Coptic newspaper Al-Watani. “This is not a healthy situation, and the law has not been enforced.” Sidhom said the problem goes beyond harming Christians. “The greater harm was done to the sovereignty of the state.”

Accountability

Ishak Ibrahim, researcher at the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (EIPR), said the state should be held accountable for allowing customary reconciliation meetings to make decisions in such serious disputes in the first place, especially that those decisions are treated locally as court rulings.

“Accepting those rulings means that the aggressors escape the consequences of their actions. We put responsibility on the government because it is the one tasked with protecting citizens and their rights,” he said, adding that no one was arrested following the attacks on Christian houses.

Amr Abdel Rahman, head of the Civil Liberties Unit at EIPR, said those reconciliation sessions do not offer solutions as they claim to. They “are said to stop sectarian tension, but our analysis shows that they only serve to ignore it,” he said. The sessions are conducted with the knowledge of security forces, which implies their support not only for the process but also the conclusions, he added.

While admitting that the state sees reconciliation sessions as the easier way out, and that is why it prefers to leave such matters to locals, Yousri al-Azabawi, researcher at the Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, notes the role of the church in perpetuating this process.

“The church bases its reaction to attacks on Christians on its relationship with the state,” he said. “When the church is on good terms with the state, it approves such fast solutions in order to avoid further tension.”

Repercussions

Journalist Salma Omar anticipates a deterioration in relations between the state and Copts if this situation persists, especially with all the expectations that followed Sisi’s coming to power. “Copts supported Sisi and played a major role in toppling the regime of the Muslim Brotherhood, and they had high hopes in this regime,” she wrote, adding that Copts have always disliked the tradition of customary reconciliations.

Coptic activist Kamal Zakher links the Kafr Darwish incident to Coptic support for Sisi. “Extremist Islamists are retaliating at Copts for their support of Sisi,” he said. “That is why I believe the president should personally interfere to change the way such clashes are handled, and to make sure that the police don’t stand watching while Copts are attacked, like they did this time.”

William Wissa, head of the MCN news organization, which focuses on issues related to Christians in the Middle East, said the clashes had nothing to do with Morcos posting anti-Islam cartoons, but rather with the general persecution of Christians. “Deriding Islam is only an excuse to persecute Christians,” he said. “There is no proof that this young man actually posted these cartoons. In fact, he turned out to be illiterate and he does not have a Facebook account.”

Refaat Abdel Hamid, an expert in criminal sciences and security affairs, objected to the use of the term “forced evacuation,” saying the family left the village until tension eased. “It was necessary at the time for the family to leave,” he said. “It is not true that this means the failure of the state, since it is the state’s intervention which brought them back.”

Security analyst General Gamal Abu Zikri said the incident in Kafr Darwish was only a dispute like many that happen in villages across Egypt, and the parties involved in the dispute had to be separated for a while. “It was the Muslim Brotherhood that blew it out of proportion in order to attack the regime.”

Former Brotherhood member Kamal al-Helbawi agreed with Abu Zikri as far as Brotherhood involvement was concerned. “After being excluded from the political scene, there is nothing they can do except spreading chaos,” Helbawi said, adding that the 2013 constitution, drafted after the fall of the Brotherhood, is the first to treat Muslims and Christians equally in all rights and duties.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/features/2015/06/20/Egypt-president-s-entourage-of-movie-stars-raises-debate-.html

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s trip to Germany was the subject a debate that was unequalled in any of his official visits during his first year in power, even if for quite peculiar reasons. Concerns about protests organized in Berlin by Europe-based Islamists, and speculation over the impact of recent death sentences handed to Muslim Brotherhood members, were not given as much attention as the movie stars who accompanied him.

Photos of actors and actresses on board the plane heading for Berlin, and videos of them rallying there in support of Sisi and cheering as his motorcade passed by, were received with resentment by some and admiration by others.

For Abdel Rahman, their presence would maybe aim to deliver a message of Sisi’s support for the arts, as opposed to his conservative predecessor Mohammed Mursi. “If so, then it still didn’t work because he should have instead invited painters, photographers, folklore dancers, or even football players who played for German teams,” he added.

Mosaad al-Masry, spokesman of the Tamarod movement that initiated the campaign to topple Mursi, shared the same view regarding the choice of delegation. “The president was expected to invite a delegation of investors who can hold talks there about projects of economic benefit for Egypt,” he said, adding that he intends to file a complaint with the prosecutor general against all bodies that facilitated and funded the trip, including the Ministry of Culture.

Mursi advisor Essam Heggi said the actors and actresses were in Berlin to “play the role of the Egyptian people” in front of Western cameras. “This turns patriotism into cheap propaganda. We have actually reached the level where we need professional actors and actresses to play the role of happy Egyptians.”

Heggi said unofficial delegations should be comprised of scientists and researchers who can play an actual role in joint projects between the two countries. Heggi said the “charade” was obvious in the photo of the actors and actresses carrying posters of Sisi as they chanted slogans in his support. “This is one photo history shall never forget.”

Supporters

Kuwaiti journalist Fajr al-Saeid accused critics of the delegation of trying to find fault with the government and inventing excuses to attack the president. “There is nothing abnormal about the delegation,” she said. “Look at the United States; presidents have taken actors like Tom Cruise and Robin Williams on trips.”

Delegation member Elham Shahine said actors and actresses are “ambassadors of Egypt’s soft power,” since they reflect the role art plays in combating extremism and terrorism. “Actors and actresses played a major part in the revolution against the Muslim Brotherhood,” she said, adding that it was important to show the world Sisi’s support for art and artists.

Yousra, another actress who participated in the delegation, said they showed the world that Sisi is loved by his people. “There is nothing wrong in supporting our president and demonstrating that we believe in him and in everything he is doing for the country,” she said.

Yousra accused the Brotherhood of organizing a campaign against the delegation. “Germany is home to a big Muslim Brotherhood lobby that spreads false news about Egypt, and we should always be there to counter their attempts.”

She added that she accompanied Sisi on his official trips whenever she could. “This is my third time. I went to the United States twice in delegations accompanying the president.” Yousra added that the actors’ delegation only constituted a small fraction of Sisi’s supporters who appeared in Berlin. “Members of Egyptian communities all over Europe came a long way to declare solidarity with their president.”

Details

Professor of international law Ayman Salama said the movie stars did not actually accompany Sisi in the formal sense of the word. “There are two delegations that ‘accompany’ the president on official trips,” he said. “One attends all official talks with the president and participates in all the activities organized by the host country, while the other takes care of administrative issues and always travels before the president in order to prepare for the visit.”

The stars, Salama said, were not part of either. “They are more of a popular delegation that goes voluntarily to make a statement or another.” When asked about the kind of statement they expected to make, he said most likely they wanted to counter any possible protests by Brotherhood members and refute claims that Sisi lacks support back home. “The president has the right to refuse allowing such delegations to go, so he just didn’t.”

Journalist Hani Labib said claims that the presidency invited actors and actresses to go to Berlin and paid for their flights and accommodation are “not true. Neither the president nor the presidency has anything to do with the delegation. It was the Chamber of the Audio-Visual Media Industry that invited actors and actresses to go, like the Ministry of Foreign Affairs invited politicians. This is popular diplomacy! What’s the big deal?” Labib said the campaign against the delegation aimed to distract public attention from the significance of the trip.

First deputy of the Egyptian Actors Syndicate, Sameh al-Seraiti, said there were no specific criteria for choosing delegation members. “Actors and actresses who had no commitments at that time just went, and that is all.”

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/profiles/2015/06/13/Does-Egypt-s-former-parliament-beauty-stand-another-chance-.html

Shahinaz al-Najjar became a familiar face in 2005 when billboards of her started spreading across Cairo as part of her campaign to run for Egypt’s male-dominated parliament. She became the talk of the town not only because she was a woman, but because she was only 36 years old at the time.

Her beauty was also a topic of discussion, as people joked about how MPs would be distracted by her presence. Her victory as Egypt’s youngest MP was a surprise for candidates as well as voters.

However, this was overshadowed by the controversy over her marriage to steel tycoon Ahmed Ezz, himself a controversial figure for his leading position in the previously-ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) and his close ties to Gamal Mubarak, reportedly groomed to succeed his father Hosni as president of Egypt. Shortly after the marriage was announced, Najjar resigned from parliament amid rumors that it was Ezz’s wish.

As Najjar, originally a businesswoman, went back to managing her projects, news of her started fading. After the 2011 revolution and the subsequent incarceration of Ezz, Najjar was almost solely mentioned in relation to how her wealth would be affected by the possibility of confiscating Ezz’s assets. Shortly after Ezz’s acquittal in June 2013, she announced her intention to run for the next parliament.

Comeback

Journalist Hussein al-Zanati says Najjar’s announcement is a disguised comeback for her husband, who had intended to run for parliament following his release. “There was a lot of pressure on Ezz to retract his decision to run for parliament, so he withdrew and made his wife run instead,” Zanati wrote.

“They are one and the same person. Both represent the powerful return of Mubarak’s supporters.” For Zanati, Najjar’s return is bound to increase opposition against the current government, which is accused of encouraging the political participation of members of the Mubarak regime.

He said while Najjar stressed the NDP would never come back, she indirectly defended the party. “She claimed that younger leaders in the party, her husband being one, had already embarked on several reforms but were not allowed to complete them because of the revolution. She is portraying her husband and his clique as revolutionaries and reformers.”

Prospects

Journalist Ahmed Ismail highlighted the unpredictability of the constituency in which she will be running for the upcoming parliamentary elections, the same constituency she represented in 2005.

“Some residents in the area she is planning to represent accused her of disrespecting the sacrifices of revolutionary youths since she is a prominent symbol of the Mubarak regime, while others welcomed her decision to run as long as she was not involved in the killing of any of those youths,” he said.

Ismail added that the financial support Najjar has been offering residents of her constituency since she decided to run is seen by some as a gesture of goodwill and by others as a bribe. “She is also making grand promises about solving the problems of the constituency like unemployment, infrastructure, and education if she wins the elections.”

In addition to questioning Najjar’s awareness of the deplorable conditions in her constituency and her ability to address them, Ismail said it would be hard for a woman to be in charge of that area.

“The district of Manial and Masr al-Qadima is categorized as tribal, since a large number of its inhabitants descend from Upper Egyptian tribes who settled there and have religiously preserved their customs. According to these customs, women are not allowed to mediate… disputes.”

Najjar, who has been touring different neighborhoods in her constituency, launched an initiative to provide future brides with electrical appliances, which contributed to increasing her popularity especially among women. She is counting on female voters, with whom she holds frequent meetings that focus on women rights.

Najjar visited the main church in her constituency on Coptic Christmas, and posted her photos there on her Facebook page. She is also offering training courses in technical skills to youths in her constituency.

This, however, did not stop the 30 complaints filed against her by members of her constituency who demanded her exclusion from the parliamentary race due to her “bad reputation.” The complaints followed statements by Cairo-based Armenian belly-dancer Soufinar about a hotel owned by Najjar allegedly involved in prostitution, drug-dealing and gambling.

Female participation

Najjar is not the only woman to run for the 2015 parliamentary elections, and not the only controversial one for that matter. Singer and belly-dancer Sama al-Masry’s decision to enter the race was met with criticism, mainly because her songs and performances are seen as sexually explicit, and because lacks political experience.

Veteran NDP MP Amal Osman, who was minister of social affairs for 20 years, said members of her former constituency, which she had kept for 24 years, were urging her to run in the upcoming elections. Although she has not officially announced whether she will run, Osman’s statement was seen as another alarming sign of the return of Mubarak’s regime.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2015/06/02/Internal-conflict-Is-the-Muslim-Brotherhood-falling-apart-.html

When Muslim Brotherhood Secretary General Mahmoud Hussein issues a statement, then party spokesman Mohamed Montasser issues another to refute it, it is obvious that there are internal conflicts. Hussein’s statement, which was overlooked by the Brotherhood’s media outlets, said he was still secretary general and that Deputy Supreme Guide Mahmoud Ezzat is acting supreme guide.

However, Montasser’s statement, published on the Brotherhood’s official website, said a new secretary general was appointed in 2014 and that Mohamed Badei, who is currently in jail, is still the official supreme guide. The Brotherhood has no representatives except him and the group’s official website, Montasser’s statement added.

Journalist Ahmed Khair al-Deen said the two statements indicate the emergence of two camps inside the Brotherhood: the old guard represented by Hussein, and the new guard represented by Montasser.

Khair al-Deen said the new guard, which mainly consists of the leadership appointed in Feb. 2014, adopted a different form of violence against the state, initially “supported the ‘no-bullets’ strategy, which includes forms of violence that do not include killing, like blocking roads and targeting power stations for the purpose of draining the regime and containing the anger of young Muslim Brothers.”

However, that changed, Khair al-Deen said, with the death sentences against a number of Brotherhood members, including ousted President Mohamed Mursi, and the death in detention of two of the group’s senior leaders, Farid Ismail and Mohamed al-Falahgi. “These developments triggered the rise of a more violent discourse against the state, and drove the old guard to step in before further escalations take place,” Khair al-Deen wrote.

This, he added, led to the conflict between these two camps: the old guard that wants to renounce violence and oppose the regime peacefully, and the new guard that believes it has the right to choose its means of resistance. “The first group prioritizes the survival of the Muslim Brotherhood, while the second prioritizes the toppling of the current regime.”

The new guard adopted a statement issued by 159 preachers, which explicitly adopts violence as the ideal way to combat the government. The statement called the state “murderous,” and supported its undermining with all available means.

“Rulers, judges, police and army officers, preachers, politicians, and journalists who are proven to be accomplices in the state’s crimes, even if only through incitement, are considered murderers and have to be penalized as such. They have to be executed,” said the statement.

The website of the Freedom and Justice Party, the Brotherhood’s political wing, posted a statement supporting “the preachers who issued an edict condoning all forms of countering the crimes of the coup, last of which the death sentence against the legitimate president.”

Coup attempt?

Activist and political analyst Anas Hassan sees Hussein’s statement as “an obvious coup that was immediately aborted.” Hassan said Hussein and the old guard, which includes Deputy Supreme Guide Ezzat and Guidance Bureau member Mahmoud Ghozlan, still believe they have the upper hand by virtue of belonging to an older generation that had been in contact with the founding members.

“They assume they are the only ones who are capable of running the Muslim Brotherhood, and that any other leadership is bound to fail,” he wrote, adding that the old guard believes the new guard is not capable of facing current challenges, such as “an enemy much fiercer than [late Egyptian President Gamal Abdel] Nasser,” a “more extremist Islamist ideology,” and a “war-torn region.”

Hassan scoffed at the old guard’s warnings of bloody scenarios if the Brotherhood follows the policies of the new guard, which it sees as immature and impulsive. “As if the old guard has not offered the Muslim Brotherhood to the military regime on a silver platter to be slaughtered in the Nahda and Rabaa sit-ins! What the Muslim Brotherhood suffers from now is all their doing.”

According to Hassan, this “coup” is only indicative of how insecure the old guard feels following the coming to power of a different generation with a different perspective.

Ahmed Ban, an expert in political Islam, said members of the old guard believe they are entitled to lead the Brotherhood because of their history. “They see themselves as the gatekeepers who have really suffered to guarantee the survival of the group and are still doing so,” he said.

Impasse

Ban said it was unlikely that the impasse would be resolved through new elections in the group. “This will be very difficult with so many Brotherhood leaders behind bars, including supporters of each camp.” Ban said he does not see a way out of the impasse.

“The Muslim Brotherhood has ignited a fire it cannot extinguish now. This started with the dispersal of the sit-ins and the revenge rhetoric that has prevailed ever since. It was easy for them then to turn the conflict from political to religious, but they won’t be able to turn it back to political now. It is also difficult for the old guard to ask the new guard to renounce the violence it has originally instilled in them.”

Ban said the current government is the real winner in this conflict, since it would benefit from further disintegration in the Brotherhood. “The regime thought it is facing a huge organized entity that needs excessive effort to be dismantled. Now the state can sit back and watch the Muslim Brotherhood self-destruct.”

Sameh Eid, a researcher in Islamist groups, downplayed the impact of the conflict on the structure of the Brotherhood. “The old guard is still in charge, and the majority in the Brotherhood, which was trained to obey the leadership, still supports it,” he said, adding that previous disputes did not have a serious impact on the Brotherhood’s structure.

“Nothing will be more radical than the quitting of Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh,” he said, referring to the deputy supreme leader who left the Brotherhood to run for president in the first elections that followed the 2011 revolution. “The Brotherhood did not collapse at the time.”

Meanwhile, younger Brotherhood members have started expressing their indignation at the mystery shrouding the dispute, and have accused conflicting leaders of dragging the group toward its destruction.

“First, Secretary General Mahmoud Hussein issues statements in the name of the Muslim Brotherhood and says no one else represents the group, then official spokesman Mohamed Montasser says Hussein is no longer the secretary general,” wrote Ali Khafagi, secretary general of the Brotherhood youth committee in Giza. “Now we have become two teams playing a game they are both destined to lose.”

Khafagi criticized leaders who keep silent about the conflict under the pretext of saving the group from polarization while the exact opposite is happening. “They destroyed us before and now they are finishing us off completely, with each of them dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood as his own private estate,” he said. “This is obviously the hardest time ever for the Muslim Brotherhood.”

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2015/05/26/Arab-Sharkas-executions-Justice-or-revenge-.html

On May 19, the Egyptian Court of Administrative Judiciary was scheduled to look into a lawsuit that demands annulling the death sentence handed to six young men on charges of carrying out terrorist attacks in the case known as Arab Sharkas. On May 17, the same six were executed by the Military Court, which issued the initial sentence.

The heated debates following the executions were different from others commonly associated with this type of trial, such as how politicized the verdict might be, the culpability of the defendants, or the referral of civilians to military courts. The controversy revolved around what was specifically unique about this case: the speed with which the executions were carried out, and the reasons for not waiting for the result of the lawsuit contesting the verdict.

Lawyer Fatma Serag sees the lawsuit filed with the administrative judiciary as “the only available window for appealing the Military Court’s verdict and putting the death sentence on hold.” Serag said the decision to execute the defendants broke all the rules that have always been observed in such cases.

“There’s always a long time, usually years, separating the issuance and implementation of a death sentence, even when the verdict is final,” she said. “The Prisons’ Authority does that in order to give the chance for new evidence to emerge, and which may lead to postponing or annulling the verdict. Why was this verdict in particular carried out that quickly?”

Mohamed Adel, head of the Litigation Unit at the Egyptian Center for Economic and Political Rights, said he had the answer to Serag’s question. “The execution was carried out two days before the hearing of the other lawsuit to close any door to a verdict that might postpone the execution,” Adel said. He added that even when a death sentence becomes final, it has to take a turn on death row, which means it waits until earlier death sentences are carried out.

“This usually takes at least six months. In this case, only two months had passed since the verdict became final,” he said, referring to the Military Court’s rejection of the appeal in March. Adel said the defendants were deprived of their legal rights when they were executed that fast. “According to the law, families of the defendants have to be notified of the time of the execution, and defendants should be allowed final visits.”

Mahmoud Salmani, a member of the movement “No to the Military Trial of Civilians,” saw the execution as an indication of the main problem inherent in the idea of military judiciary, since its very presence violates the principle of the separation of powers.

“Judges in the Military Court are appointed by the head of the Military Judiciary Authority. This authority reports to the minister of defense who, in turn, is affiliated to the executive power,” he said. “This means that the military judiciary isn’t independent.”

A Human Rights Watch report voiced the same concern and demanded, weeks before the execution, that the defendants be retried before a civilian court. “Egypt’s military courts, whose judges are serving military officers, are neither independent nor impartial, but in October 2014 President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi increased their powers to try civilians by expanding their jurisdiction over any crimes that occur on state or public property,” said the report.

Criminal sciences expert General Refaat Abdel Hamid said in the case of defendants facing trial before two courts, the court that issues the first sentence has the right to carry it out. “This applies to the death penalty and to cases where one court is civilian and the other military,” he said. “In case of execution, the second pending trial is automatically dropped.”

Ahmed Helmi, a member of the defendants’ defense team, agreed with Abdel Hamid. “Filing a lawsuit against the verdict doesn’t oblige the Prisons Authority to postpone carrying out this verdict,” he said. “When the Military Court rejected the appeal, the verdict became enforceable and filing a lawsuit with an administrative court wouldn’t stop it. The only exception would be if the administrative court accepts the case.”

Professor of criminal law Mahmoud Kobeish blamed the administrative judiciary for not treating the matter with more urgency. “The administrative court should’ve set an earlier date for looking into the case to guarantee that the execution could be put on hold,” he said.

Analysts who supported the execution of the verdict expressed their concern over the reaction of the militant group to which the defendants reportedly belong, namely Ansar Beit al-Maqdes. “The group will do its best to prove its existence, and to convince Egyptians and the international community that the verdict was politicized,” said political writer Gamal Asaad.

“That’s why the Ministry of Interior declared a state of emergency right after the executions were carried out.” Asaad also expected that several countries and human rights organizations that have opposed the ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood would condemn the executions.

Revenge

Professor of political science Tarek Fahmy said the revenge of militants has become more immediate than expected. “This was made very clear when three judges were assassinated in Sinai on the same day [former President Mohammed] Mursi and several Brotherhood leaders received a death sentence.”

The link between the executions and the killing of the judges took the controversy to a different level, as it was debated whether the decision to hasten the execution was aimed at avenging the judges. Hesham al-Mayani said what was more serious than whether the executions were fair is for the state to become party to a feud with militants and to allow this to impact its decisions.

“It is obvious that members of the Arab Sharkas cell were not scheduled to be executed on that day, especially that the state had enough on its plate with the strong reactions the latest death sentences against Mursi and Brotherhood members brought about on both the domestic and international levels,” he wrote. “This changed when the judges were killed.”

Mayani said he did not object to the verdict but rather to the timing, since it demonstrated that militants have succeeded in dragging the state into a cycle of revenge. “We will be fooling ourselves if we believe that the judges are now avenged because all what the state did was punishing terrorists it already had under its control for a crime committed by other terrorists,” he said. “Punishment for each crime should target those who committed this crime. We cannot assume that punishing another criminal would stop the criminals who are still at large.”

Security experts, however, see fast executions as the way to speed up the elimination of terrorist cells. “It’s important to get rid of members of those cells as fast as possible so that Egypt can regain its security,” said strategic expert General Hamdi Bekheet. “Executions should be accompanied by a series of clampdowns on those terrorists in their strongholds.”

Military expert General Talaat Mussallam disagreed with speculation about an increase in terrorist operations following the execution: “Militants strike whenever they get the chance, regardless of death sentences their fellow-militants receive.”

For Mussallam, the assassination of the judges illustrates the growing danger of militant groups, and which necessitates their immediate elimination. “Militants were targeting army and police officers; now they’ve added judges.”

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2015/05/19/Saving-Ethiopians-in-Libya-Egyptian-humanitarianism-or-politics-.html

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was at Cairo International Airport to welcome 27 Ethiopians who were abducted by militants in Libya and freed by Egyptian authorities. In a press conference at the airport in the presence of the Ethiopian ambassador to Cairo, Sisi said Ethiopians were “brothers,” adding: “We’re one people. We drink from the same water,” referring to the Nile.

News of the rescue was generally well-received in Egypt, even if for different reasons. Analysts wondered how political such a humanitarian initiative could be, and how beneficial it is expected to be for Egyptian-Ethiopian relations, particularly regarding disputes over shares of Nile water.

Bilateral relations

Mokhtar Ghobashi, head of the Arab Center for Strategic and Political Studies, said Egypt was setting a precedent for bilateral relations with Ethiopia based on mutual support. “In return for such a humanitarian initiative, Egypt expects Ethiopia to understand its dire need for its full share of Nile water,” he said.

Egypt might be hoping that Ethiopia will stop work on the Grand Renaissance Dam, which is expected to drastically affect Egypt’s share of Nile water, until bilateral negotiations are completed, Ghobashi added.

Nagi al-Shehabi, head of Al-Geel Party – which focuses on the Nile’s role in Egypt’s political and economic development – says the rescue is “a token of goodwill” that will positively impact the progress of negotiations.

“This is especially true because of the complexity of the operation that led to the rescue, which involved a great deal of courage, planning and intelligence,” he said. “This is bound to deepen the relations between the two countries, and to urge Ethiopia not to infringe upon Egypt’s historical right to Nile water.”

Strategic expert General Mokhtar Qandeel said: “Ethiopians are a kind people and they’ll definitely feel grateful.” Ambassador and former Deputy Foreign Minister Mona Omar said: “The rescue had a very positive impact on Ethiopian public opinion.”

Beshir Abdel Fattah, researcher at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, agreed that the rescue was part of an Egyptian plan to ease tension that followed Ethiopia’s decision to construct the dam.

“Ethiopia decided to proceed with the construction of the dam right after [former Egyptian President Hosni] Mubarak’s ouster in 2011, without taking into consideration the hard times through which Egypt was going,” he said.

“Ethiopia has also not put the construction on hold while negotiations are ongoing. These are all alarming signs.” Abdel Fattah said while rescuing the Ethiopians was a “nice gesture” on Egypt’s part, “it’ll never stop the construction of the dam.”

Continental role

General Fouad Allam, strategic expert and former head of Egypt’s State Security Bureau, said the change in bilateral relations “will take some time. We have to bear in mind that the current regime is now redressing decades-long mistakes which involved extreme negligence of Egypt’s relations with Africa, and which eventually led some African countries to act against Egypt’s interests, as is the case with the Renaissance Dam.”

Security expert General Sameh Seif al-Yazal said the rescue delivered “a message that Egypt will always stand by its African neighbors. Egypt is starting to restore its leading role in the continent once more.”

This role, he added, would be further enhanced when Egypt frees the second group of Ethiopians detained in Libya: “This is just the first round. Another group will be released in the coming few days.”

Tamer al-Zayadi, an expert in economic policy, said the rescue demonstrated to Africa Egypt’s military prowess beyond its borders and under tough circumstances: “Now it’s obvious that the Egyptian army is strong enough to assume a leading regional role.”

Emad Awni, an expert in political and strategic affairs, said Sisi’s decision to personally receive the freed Ethiopians was “a message that the president is the protector of not only Egyptians, but also all Africans.”

Double standards?

Talk about the ability of Egyptian intelligence and the military has driven many to ask why the same had not happened with the 21 Copts who were beheaded by militants in Libya.

Mina Thabet, a researcher at the Egyptian Commission for Rights and Freedoms, said Egyptian authorities made very little effort to save the Copts compared to what was done for the Ethiopians. “The Egyptian state was capable of striking militants’ strongholds in Libya, and was then capable of freeing Ethiopian hostages detained by militants,” Thabet said. “How come it wasn’t capable of saving the Copts?”

Thabet added that the families of the Copts provided information about them when they were still alive and which they gathered on their own, but the state did not make good use of it. “The Foreign Ministry kept telling the families that they’d coordinate with tribal chiefs but nothing happened, while in the case of the Ethiopians this coordination became possible.”

Some analysts attributed the Egyptian state’s alleged reluctance to save the Copts to its desire to find a strong justification for striking the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) inside Libya. “Egypt possibly wanted a pretext to strike Libyan territories and support General Haftar against the Muslim Brotherhood there,” said Ambassador and former Deputy Foreign Minister Ibrahim Yousri.

However, political science professor Mohamed al-Saadani said: “It’s very possible that this time Egypt was able to find suitable mediators that are close to the kidnappers and were, therefore, able to secure the release of the prisoners. Similar attempts could’ve failed at the time of the Coptic hostages. The presidency and the Foreign Ministry did try a lot.”

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/features/2015/05/03/Egyptians-panic-as-country-reels-from-Nile-contamination.html

The capsizing of a ship carrying 500 tons of phosphate in the Nile has sent shockwaves across Egypt. As a state of emergency has been declared and an investigation committee established, concerns keep escalating about the impact of the spill on crops, potable water and marine life.

Views on the issue have been strikingly different, with some regarding it as a prelude to a disaster, and others downplaying it as an exaggerated reaction to an easily manageable situation.

Panic among Egyptians was especially highlighted when three days after the accident, some 500 people were hospitalized for showing symptoms of poisoning in the Nile Delta governorate of Sharqiyya. A link was immediately established between the mass sickness and the contamination of Nile water.

Denials

However, Irrigation Minister Hossam Moghazi dismissed such a link, saying the Nile passes by seven cities between Qena inthe south, where the ship capsized, and Sharqiyya in the north.

“None of those seven cities reported cases of poisoning,” he said. “Plus, it would take 12 days for the contamination to reach the Nile Delta, while the poisoning took place only three days after the ship capsized.” Moghazi added that samples taken from Nile water in Sharqqiya showed no signs of contamination.

Irrigation Ministry spokesman Khaled Wassef said the poisoning of Nile water was unlikely. “Phosphate isn’t soluble in water so there’s little risk,” he said. Health Minister Adel Adawi said patients showed no symptoms of phosphate poisoning, adding that the ministry was monitoring the situation. “Nile water is being tested every 12 hours to detect any change,” he said.

Concerns

Such statements did not, however, dissipate fears of an impending crisis, especially with the death of one of the Sharqiyya patients, reports that the number of poisoning cases has exceeded 700, and no decisive explanation for the poisonings.

Magdi Allam, secretary general of the Union for Arab Environmental Experts, said the phosphate the ship carried was in the form of rocks, not powder, which explains the insolubility theory. “Pure phosphate is extracted from these rocks at fertilizer factories, and this is a complicated chemical process,” he said, adding that out of the 500 tons, the quantity of pure phosphate would not exceed 20 percent.

Allam said those rocks would either not dissolve in water at all, or dissolve at a very slow rate. “Even if part of it dissolves, the Nile extends all the way from the south to the north of Egypt. The concentration of phosphate will, therefore, be very low in all this amount of water,” he said.

Toxicology Professor Mahmoud Amr seconded Allam’s opinion: “The ship didn’t sink in a canal or a lake, and Nile water isn’t stagnant and the current is very strong at the place where the accident took place.”

Amr scoffed at rumors about the link between the accident and poisoning cases in the north: “It would’ve been more logical that people get poisoned in Qena or other Upper Egyptian governorates. How come it started in Sharqiyya?”

Professor of toxicology and environmental diseases, Nabil Abdel Maksoud, underlined the dangers of mineral impurities contained in phosphate rocks. “Those minerals are soluble, and can reach the human body through potable water, fish and crops,” he said.

“If the water isn’t thoroughly purified, minerals like cadmium and silicon dioxide can reach the stomach, causing severe diarrhea and vomiting as well as other long-term problems like atrophy of the central nervous system and the immune system.”

Abdel Maksoud said those mineral impurities can be removed at water treatment stations before the water is available for human consumption. “It’s important, in this case, to decrease the percentage of chloride acid, used for purifying water, because it accelerates the dissolution of cadmium,” he said. “It’s also necessary to leave water for longer times in oxidation ponds.”

Yehia Gadou, secretary general of the NGO Voice of the Nile, said the spill is another example of the abuse to which the Nile is subjected. “Why is cargo containing toxins or hazardous material transferred through the Nile in the first place? Why aren’t they transferred by train, which is in fact a much cheaper way?” he asked, adding that the NGO has sent a request to that effect to the government.

“The Nile, around which the world’s most ancient civilization was founded, has for a long time been subject to a variety of violations. Fertilizers and chemical waste are thrown into the Nile. Donkeys and buffalos are bathed in the Nile. Sewage is dumped into the Nile. This is only to cite a few examples.”

Uncertainty

Journalist and blogger Laurie Balbo seemed to dismiss the arguments of both camps about the level of threat posed by the spill. Balbo said there were several types of “phosphates,” therefore it was impossible to determine the impact of the spill without knowing the exact components of the sunken load, which in turn determines how soluble it is.

“Phosphates are natural salt derivatives of the element phosphorus, negatively charged ions that link with positively charged ions such as sodium, potassium, ammonium, lead, and barium, each greatly changing how phosphate behaves,” she wrote.

“Some phosphates (aluminum phosphate as example) would present human health risks such as skin irritation and – if ingested – abdominal pain, nausea, and diarrhea. Others (such as highly toxic lead phosphate) would leach into the water at a low concentration, but stay present for a long time if the spill is not quickly cleaned up. Without having more specific information about the nature of the material, it is impossible to foretell health risks.”

Balbo said while Egypt’s dependence on Nile water was a matter of life and death, the authorities did not seem to be examining the matter thoroughly, and official statements about the insolubility of the material were not accurate since they were not accompanied by a detailed account of the components of the shipment.

Conspiracy

Journalist and anchor Amani al-Khayat blamed the Muslim Brotherhood. “We need to know who was driving this ship, who his assistants are and what their history looks like,” she said. “We also need to know the load allowed for a ship of this size, and whether the load of this ship conformed with regulations.”

Khayat said it was suspicious that even though the ship crashed into a concrete bridge pillar, neither the driver nor his two assistants sustained any injuries. “There wasn’t even one single bruise! They don’t look like they were taken by surprise. It’s obvious that they crashed it.”

Khayat said the accident was one of many orchestrated by the Brotherhood since the ouster of President Mohammed Mursi, to “block the path of Egyptians toward the state they aspire for.” She also accused the Brotherhood of scheming to poison Egyptians in Sharqiyya. “Think of why Sharqiyya in particular was chosen? Isn’t Mursi’s hometown in Sharqiyya? Isn’t Sharqiyya home to a large number of senior Brotherhood leaders?”

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2015/04/20/Will-hash-be-legalized-in-Egypt-Debate-heats-up.html

Heated debate has ensued since the Cigarettes Dealers Association submitted an official request to legalize hash.

Fierce criticism of Osama Salama, chairman of the association and sponsor of the campaign, is paralleled with strong support for the initiative.

While the first camp views calls for legalization as implicit encouragement of addiction, the second stresses the financial benefits of such a move, especially in light of the high rates of consumption among Egyptians.

Salama says his request is purely pragmatic: “Hash is already widely consumed in Egypt. We might as well make it legal.”

He says the state will save billions annually if hash becomes legal.

“According to reports, dealing in hash yields a huge annual profit that ranges from 40 to 45 billion Egyptian pounds [$5.25 – $5.90 billion],” he said.

“The state wastes a lot of money in combating drugs and only manages to confiscate 15 percent of the quantity, while the remaining 85 percent is smuggled into the country anyway.”

Salama says taxing the trade would raise a lot of money and the economy “is bound to prosper.”

He rejected concerns about increased hash consumption if his request is granted: “People like whatever is prohibited, but when the prohibited is legalized consumption drops.”

Salama refrained from engaging in legal and religious debates about the issue: “We want what’s in Egypt’s interest at the end of the day.”

Criminality?

Security expert General Refaat Abdel Hamid accuses Salama of threatening Egypt’s national security: “Israel used drugs rather than weapons to destabilize Egypt, and this is what Salama is doing now.”

Abdel Hamid said he filed a complaint with the interior minister, asking for Salama’s arrest for “spreading chaos.”

Security expert Sameh Lotfi also slammed the initiative: “Will the Cigarettes Dealers Association agree to take responsibility for all crimes committed by hash consumers?”

Lotfi says the Interior Ministry is doing a very good job against drug consumption: “Now we can see how difficult it is to get drugs like Tramadol, and this means the ministry has managed to eliminate it from the market.”

Journalist Mohamed Abdel Raouf scoffed at Salama’s claim that 45 million Egyptians already smoke hash: “Well, if half the population smokes hash, then maybe we should replace quality education with free hash. What an out-of-the-box solution to our problems after two revolutions!”

Activist Seif al-Azzazi filed a complaint against Salama with the prosecutor general, accusing him of “committing a crime against the law, the state, and the people.”

Hani al-Nazer, former head of the National Center for Research, accused Salama of committing “a full-fledged crime” by encouraging an increase in the number of “mentally and psychologically disturbed addicts.”

Effects of hash

Psychiatrist Magdi Ibrahim Hussein, who has done extensive research on addiction, warns of a “disaster” if hash is legalized: “When consumed in small quantities, hash can lift the consumer’s spirits, but when the quantities increase, it can cause hallucinations similar to those triggered by LSD in addition to memory disorders, lack of empathy, distorted perception, and aggression.”

Hash consumption, added Hussein, also causes heart palpitations, cornea inflammation, mouth and throat dryness, nausea and respiratory system inflammation. “Addiction is also responsible for a wide range of crimes, particularly rape, and road accidents. This is basically because narcotics make people impulsive and violent as well as incapable of exercising self-restraint.”

Hussein refutes Salama’s statements about the economic benefits of legalizing hash: “Hash induces depression, lethargy, and apathy. How can people suffering from such symptoms be able to work? What kind of profit is expected to be made when people stop going to work or are unable to work conscientiously?”

 Pragmatism

Osama al-Ghazali Harb, an activist and member of the Free Egyptians Party, criticized the way Salama was being treated like a criminal: “Salama’s argument is very logical, objective, and worth studying. He simply argued that since the war against hash has so far been lost, then we might as well legalize it. This is done in several countries like The Netherlands, Norway, the Czech Republic, Brazil, and Argentina.”

Harb pointed to the popularity of hash among Egyptians of all social backgrounds, and the state’s failure to eliminate it: “There are two ways of dealing with anything considered uncommon in a given society: prohibition or legalization under regulations. This will not lead to increased consumption as some claim. Take alcohol for example; it is legal yet not more than 2 percent of the Egyptian population consumes it.”

Business tycoon Naguib Sawiris wrote an article entitled “How the Egyptian government can make billions with 10 resolutions,” and one of his suggestions was legalizing hash: “This is an idea many might not approve, but that is applied in several developed countries. Think of the customs and taxes that will be imposed on the hash trade.”

The Egyptian independent daily Al-Masri al-Youm ran a report on the benefits of consuming hash, based on a German study. “According to the study, smoking hash is less dangerous than consuming processed narcotics like heroin and cocaine and even less dangerous than alcohol. Researchers, in fact, argue that hash helps its consumers to go on with their lives while other drugs can cost them their jobs or totally destroy their lives.”

According to a survey conducted by the newspaper about the proposal, 48 percent support legalizing hash while 47 percent oppose it.

“This result shows one of two things,” said the paper. “Either Egyptians are really serious about supporting the legalization of hash or this reflects a state of dark comedy that is currently prevailing in the Egyptian society.”

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/features/2015/04/06/Coptic-Easter-How-Egypt-celebrates-the-rising-of-Christ.html

Coptic Easter, which falls on the Sunday following the full moon that comes after the vernal equinox (March 21), is one of the two most important holy days for Egyptian Christians, the other being Coptic Christmas on Jan. 7. Coptic Easter marks the end of the 55-day Lent, commonly known as the Great Fast, where all animal products – including milk, cheese and butter – are prohibited.

While Coptic fasting time is unequalled in any other Christian community, with a total of 210 days in 365, the pre-Easter fast is the longest. That is why the feasting that follows it is the most remarkable in Egyptian Coptic culture.

On Easter eve or Holy Saturday, which falls this year on April 11, Coptic Christians start their Easter Vigil, also known as The Great Vigil, which lasts until the dawn of Easter. It is preferable for those who can to fast completely – that is, abstain from food and drink – on Good Friday and Holy Saturday, and break the fast upon the end of Mass.

The Easter Eve ceremony includes a symbolic reenactment of Christ’s ascension, also called the “resurrection play.” The play shows the gates of heaven closed following Adam’s sin and his expulsion from the Garden of Eden. Lights are turned off to symbolize the darkness humanity lived in before the advent of Christ. The light that follows indicates that Christ has risen and was able to open the gates of heaven, thus cleansing humanity from the original sin.

The prayers are recited in Coptic and Arabic. All Egyptian Christians, including those not familiar with the Coptic language, know by heart the sentence repeated on that night: “Ekhrestos Anesti, Alisos Anesti” (Christ is risen! Truly He is risen).

Easter day is known for the banquets that Coptic families prepare to break their long fast. The food served is not very different from that commonly consumed during the two main Islamic holidays. Like the Lesser Bairam, cookies and biscuits are purchased or home-baked, and like the Greater Bairam, meat and Egyptian fatteh (rice with crispy flatbread). Buying new clothes is also a tradition shared by Coptic and Islamic holidays as well as family reunions.

Easter day is followed by Spring Day, also known as Sham al-Nessim in Arabic, which is celebrated by all Egyptians but has a special place in Coptic culture. The Arabic name is originally Coptic: “shoum in nissim,” meaning “the garden of crops.” Spring Day is an ancient Egyptian festival celebrated at the beginning of spring.

Origins

When Egypt became Christian in the fourth century BC, Spring Day used to fall in the middle of the Great Fast, making Egyptians unable to enjoy the feast linked to the ancient holiday and the accompanying festivities they are supposed to abstain from during the fast. They therefore decided to celebrate Spring Day the day after Easter. Ever since, Spring Day has become the Monday following Easter Sunday.

Although Copts treat Spring Day as an extension of Easter, the former is marked by special rituals more linked to the ancient Egyptian celebration such as eating salted mullet, green onions and lupin in public parks. The coloring of eggs is similarly ancient Egyptian, with the hatching process being a symbol of life coming out of a lifeless object, which was then analogous to the growing of crops and spring as the season of fertility.

In the Christian tradition, eggs came to be associated with the rising of Christ from his tomb, and red became the preferred color for painting eggs to symbolize His blood, a tradition still followed by Copts.

Politics

As Easter approaches, Copts are speculating over whether President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will attend Mass as he did on Coptic Christmas, an action that was applauded by most Copts as a step toward more tolerance and as a means of assuaging fears of sectarian discrimination that accompanied the Islamist rule of Mohamed Mursi.

In addition to inviting the president and the prime minister according to protocol, Coptic Archbishop Sergius Sergius said 7,000 invitations for Easter Mass have been sent: “Ministers, governors and other state officials are included in the invitations. We should invite the parliament speaker as well but there is none at the moment.”

During Mursi’s rule, the church only invited the president, prime minister and parliament speaker. Analysts saw this as the church’s way of evading the embarrassment of receiving many rejections from the mostly Islamist political scene at the time.

Some Copts opted to spend Easter and the entire Holy Week in Jerusalem to follow the path of Christ in the days that preceded the crucifixion. Around 1,300 Copts flew from Cairo Airport to Tel Aviv for the eight-day pilgrimage that should include the Via Dolorosa, or Way of Sorrows – through which Jesus carried the cross on his way to crucifixion – as well as the Church of the Holy Sepulcher, also called the Church of Resurrection, and the Nativity Church in Bethlehem.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2015/03/31/Will-Egypt-still-get-its-fair-share-of-Nile-water-.html

The Declaration of Principles signed in Khartoum by Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia reopened the unresolved dispute over the sharing of Nile water, and raised once more the thorny issue of the Renaissance Dam. The declaration aims to set the main principles that would protect the interests of downstream countries, whose share is expected to be threatened by the completion of the Ethiopian dam.

The declaration has been met with mixed reactions. Many question how binding it is on the Ethiopian side, while others see it as a positive step toward ending a crisis that is detrimental to Egypt’s security.

Amr Hamzawi, professor of political science, said the state opting for negotiating to end the standoff is in itself a promising step. “Establishing this kind of dialogue shows that Egypt respects Ethiopia’s development aspirations as represented by the Renaissance Dam while making sure its own rights are not compromised,” he wrote.

“The declaration also eliminates any possibility of a military conflict between the two countries and instead initiates a stage of cooperation in tandem with Sudan and later other Nile Basin countries as well as foreign parties like the U.S., the EU, China, and international financial organizations.”

Criticisms

However, Hamzawi said there were still reasons for concern. “The state has not been transparent enough about how this declaration can actually save Egypt from the impending danger of losing much of the water it badly needs. We have not been informed of the core of this declaration and several questions are not answered like the capacity of the new dam’s reservoir as well as the bilateral talks between Sudan and Ethiopia and the way the two countries would guarantee not infringing on Egypt’s rights.”

Despite his concerns, Hamzawi criticized political factions that saw objection to the agreement as a way of expressing opposition to the government. “Several parties were quick to condemn the agreement without knowing the details and without proposing any alternative solutions to the problem. Voicing valid objections to some of the regime’s practices is one thing and objecting for the sake of objection is another.”

Hamzawi said opposition forces could still criticize the government while objectively supporting its reasonable steps toward maintaining Egypt’s strategic interests.

Nader Nour al-Din, professor of irrigation and water resources, sees the declaration as a mere formality that jeopardizes rather than guarantees Egypt’s rights. According to Nour al-Din, who said he consulted a renowned international law expert on the matter, Ethiopia is the party that emerged victorious after signing the declaration.

“Through signing the declaration, Egypt is bestowing legitimacy on the Renaissance Dam,” he said. “Now that the three Eastern Nile countries have signed the declaration, all international funding for the dam will resume right away. This means $5.5 billion from the National Bank of China, $1 billion from Italy and $1 billion from South Korea, in addition to support from the World Bank.”

The declaration, he added, does not include guarantees that Egypt’s share will be maintained, since Ethiopia did not commit to a specific amount of water to reach Egypt following the construction of the dam. “With this declaration, Ethiopia took everything and Egypt ended up with nothing.”

Nour al-Din said in earlier statements that the World Bank refused to fund the dam because of the harm it would do to Egypt and Sudan, and because of Ethiopia’s history of violating the water rights of its neighbors.

“Ethiopia harmed Kenya by constructing three dams, thus violating an earlier pledge to construct only one dam,” he said. “This deprived Kenya of huge amounts of water and led to the displacement of 5 million Kenyans.” He says Ethiopia “will betray Egypt and keep all the water.”

Benefits

Hani Raslan, head of the Water Resources Unit at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said the declaration was not binding on any of the parties, but only offered a general framework for future dealings between the signatories. However, he disagrees that the declaration harms Egypt’s interests.

“Nothing in the declaration says that Egypt approves the capacity of the dam’s reservoir since this issue is still being negotiated,” he wrote. “Also, the declaration is not about Egypt’s share of Nile water but only about the dispute over the dam, which means that there is no infringement on Egypt’s historical right to the Nile and the agreements that regulate it.”

Raslan said the declaration is based on the principles of international law and the U.N. Charter, and provides political benefits. “Signing the declaration will improve Egypt’s image on the regional and international levels after the shameful way the Muslim Brotherhood government dealt with the dam issue,” he said.

Raslan was referring to the conference presided over by ousted President Mohamed Mursi and broadcast live without attendees’ knowledge, in which several politicians made derogatory remarks against Ethiopia and suggested hostile ways of dealing with the crisis.

Raslan said the declaration made Ethiopia morally committed before the world to respecting Egypt’s water rights. “At least, Ethiopia is now acknowledging a set of principles that it had earlier denied.”

Water resources expert Ahmed Fawzi refuted claims that signing the declaration means Egypt’s approval of the construction of the Renaissance Dam. “The declaration makes Ethiopia committed to the report that is to be issued by the international consultative office on the impact of the dam on downstream countries,” he said.

Fawzi was referring to the office that is to be chosen by the Tripartite Committee of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, made up of the declaration’s three signatories, and whose findings are to be respected by the three countries as the declaration stipulates. “This is the first time Ethiopia signs an official document that recognizes Egypt’s rights, and the first time it doesn’t contest historical agreements that warrant those rights.”

Damage limitation

Political science lecturer Rawia Tawfik said the declaration was a manifestation of “the diplomacy of managing losses.” After Ethiopia’s insistence on going ahead with the construction of the dam, Egypt had no choice but to resort to negotiations, she said. “The balance of power is now in favor of Ethiopia based on its location as an upstream country that controls 85% of Nile water flowing from the Ethiopian Highlands,” she wrote.

Tawfik said it was important to consider that Ethiopia had since the 1950s been against agreements that guaranteed Egypt’s share of Nile water. “Ethiopia has always considered those agreements an insult to its national dignity since being the country that provides the Nile with most of its water it was not consulted in any of them,” she wrote. “Against this backdrop, the declaration seems a step forward.”

However, Tawfik said Ethiopia would benefit from this declaration more than Egypt. “While Ethiopia is seeing its national dream come true, Egypt is only trying to minimize the damage.”